The Atlantic Division hasn’t had as many changes as many expected, with the struggling Senators near the bottom of the league and the Lightning being outside of the current playoff picture.
The Bruins are still somehow one of the best teams in the league and the Sabres look to be regressing somehow.
It sure is an interesting, chaotic division with plenty of ups and downs to look at ~30 games into the season.
Montreal Canadiens
Biggest Surprise: Sean Monahan’s resurgence
I originally wanted to talk about the solid, future top 4 defenceman in Kaiden Guhle and Justin Barron but their advanced numbers are still looking suspect through this point in the season.
While he hasn’t produced to the level that he did last year, Monahan’s 20 points in 33 games have the 29-year-old forward at a 50-point pace, a production rate he hasn’t achieved in a healthy season since the 2019-20 campaign.
While it’s safe to say that the big guns on the roster haven’t performed to expectations, Monahan providing solid secondary scoring in a top 6 role is exactly what they wanted out of him when he was acquired from the Flames.
While he isn’t on the same timeline as the young stars in the making that are on the Canadiens roster, Monahan turning himself into a player that Montreal can squeeze any potential assets out of is enough of a positive for their struggling progression.
Biggest Disappointment: Little to no change in Slafkovsky’s game
I wanted to talk about Caufield not scoring at the level we expected him to, but the 2022 first-overall pick is putting up similar numbers to his already looked-down-on rookie season.
Slafkovsky is currently skating on the first line next to Caufield and Suzuki as well as an opportunity on the team’s first powerplant unit. Yet, he only has 4 goals and 12 points through 32 games this season.
The 6’ 3” winger hasn’t shown many positive signs to Canadiens fans over his 80 career games and I just don’t see the superstar potential when watching him that you would expect out of a recent first overall pick.
The kid clearly has confidence, but he isn’t producing or playing at a level that merits that right now.
I do think that he’ll turn it around, as he has certainly looked the best that he has in his short career over the past week or so.
I started writing this before his past couple of games, where he has scored 2 goals and 4 points. Hopefully, that’s a sign of good things to come.
Boston Bruins
Biggest Surprise: James van Riemsdyk’s scoring
I’m still shocked at how the Flyers thought that it was a good idea to hold onto JVR through the trade deadline last season. While his value wasn’t the highest you could tell that he could still be a big part of a playoff team.
The Bruins currently top the Atlantic Division despite losing their two best centers, Bergeron and Krejci, to retirement this past offseason. van Riemsdyk has been a big contributor to that success.
His 21 points in 30 games are tied for third on the team in scoring while averaging just under 14 minutes TOI per night.
He’s currently skating on the team’s third line, but the power forward has had an elite net-front presence whenever he’s on the ice for the Bruins, adding some strong secondary production to go with it.
Biggest Disappointment: Jake DeBrusk’s slump
This isn’t the first season that Jake DeBrusk’s game has fallen off a cliff just as he’s about to reach new highs. The COVID-shortened 2021 season was supposed to be a big one for him, and he scored 14 points in 41 games.
Last year was the best of DeBrusk’s seven-year career, scoring a career-high 27 goals and 50 points in just 64 games.
So far this season, he has just 4 goals and 11 points through 30 games. His advanced stats haven’t fallen off nearly as much, so I do believe that this slump will turn around this season.
But at 27-years-old, DeBrusk has established himself as a great-to-elite secondary scorer in this league. The Bruins need him to be more consistent if they hope to stay in contention for more years to come.
Ottawa Senators
Biggest Surprise: Jakob Chychrun excelling amidst chaos
The Senators have been awful so far this year in a way that no one truly could have seen coming. A factor in that is the major injury to their top defenceman Thomas Chabot after just 9 games.
Chychrun has stepped up for them in a big way after being acquired at the trade deadline last season, seamlessly joining the roster and putting up 22 points in 28 games thus far.
His advanced numbers aren’t as good as they have been in the past during his time in Arizona but as the team succeeds more that should be something that turns around.
Biggest Disappointment: The new goaltending duo
Korpisalo’s $4 million AAV over the next 5 years already looks like it has a solid chance of being a future problem for Ottawa after he has suited up in just 19 games.
Of 59 netminders that have appeared in at least 10 games so far this season, Korpisalo is 53rd in GSAx according to MoneyPuck’s model (-6.4).
That along with his 0.891% save percentage puts the Senators in a tough spot between the pipes.
It’s a good thing that their starter last season, Anton Forsberg, who has had success for them over the past two seasons is a solid option in relief.
That ‘solid option’ has somehow been worse than Korpisalo. He’s 56th of 59 in GSAx (-8.7) and has a horrid 0.876% save percentage through 11 games.
If they want to get themselves out of this hole these two need to pick it up pretty quickly.
Florida Panthers
Biggest Surprise: Sam Reinhart breaking out into stardom
I thought that Flordia stole Reinhart from Buffalo when they traded for him in the 2021-22 season, and I think people knew that from the jump when he scored 33 goals and 82 points in 78 games in his inaugural season in the Sunshine State.
However, Reinhart is playing the best hockey of his career right now, scoring 18 goals and 39 points through 32 games so far this season. That’s a 100-point pace.
Their best player last season has had a down year so far as well, making it even more important that Reinhart is currently 11th in league scoring.
Reinhart’s elite defence for a top 6 winger is even more reason to believe that he is performing well beyond any expectations that he had coming into this season.
Biggest Disappointment: Matthew Tkachuk being human
The 2023 Hart Trophy nominee, and best player on the Panthers on their way to a Stanley Cup Final appearance last season, has not been as advertised so far this year.
Just 5 goals and 22 points in 32 games is not enough for the calibre of player he has shown to be, remember that he was in conversations for being the best winger in the league heading into this season.
His playdriving has still been elite but he has not been producing up to the standards he has set for himself.
Like most cases of good players not scoring goals, Tkachuk’s 4.4% shooting percentage is a showing of bad luck playing a part in this.
He shoots at around a 12.9% clip for his career which would have him at around 14 or 15 goals on the year, putting him back around a point-per-game pace.
Tkachuk should inevitably turn things around, but considering how tight the Eastern Conference is looking they need him to return to form sooner rather than later.
Tampa Bay Lighting
Biggest Surprise: Hagel still being an elite complementary piece
No one had Hagel becoming this good when he was acquired for two first-round picks and two young roster players in Taylor Raddysh and Boris Katchouk at the trade deadline in 2022.
Last year was Hagel’s first full year in Tampa Bay where he scored 30 goals and 64 points, a height that I didn’t expect to come that early.
This year Hagel is continuing his upward trajectory as he is currently on pace for yet another career year with 68 points.
This is the same team that has lost Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde, and Blake Coleman for nothing over the past few offseasons.
The emergence of a consistent 60-point player is significant to their future hopes of reaching the highs of lifting the Stanley Cup again in the coming years.
Biggest Disappointment: Sergachev’s post-extension decline
Since he first suited up for the Lightning in the 2017-18 season it was clear that Tampa Bay had come out as bandits in the Drouin trade with Montreal.
He had a huge impact on both of their Stanley Cup Championships and is just coming off a career year with 64 points in 79 games.
Sergachev’s well-deserved 8-year $8.5 million AAV extension kicked in this season, and things are starting to look a bit worrying.
Don’t get me wrong, he hasn’t been abysmal. But at this point you would want to see him showing more signs of being ready to take over the number one spot from Hedman on the Bolt’s blueline considering the size of his contract.
Sergachev still has 19 points in 33 games this season but his advanced numbers have clearly taken a step back.
At just 25 years old there is obviously nothing to truly worry about as of this moment, but you’d hope to see him pick things up a bit as Tampa is currently outside the playoff picture.
Detroit Red Wings
Biggest Surprise: Patrick Kane’s strong production
Kane has only suited up 9 times for Detroit, but scoring 4 goals and 9 points already is a good sign for them.
The 35-year-old hall-of-fame winger had just 5 goals and 12 points in the 19 games he suited up for the Rangers last season, and it was hard to see him playing better coming off of a humongous hip surgery this offseason.
Now, the Red Wings have gone 2-6-1 in those 9 games. That’s pretty rough for a roster that was 14-7-3 and was second in their division at the time. Now they’re on the outside looking into the playoffs in an extremely competitive conference.
Kane has led them in 5-on-5 points and total points over that time. He also already leads the team in on-ice xGF% (54.8%) according to MoneyPuck.
You can’t put any blame on him for their recent lack of success, he’s been a huge boost to their offensive firepower since his arrival. If he can continue this level of production is another question.
Biggest Disappointment: David Perron slowing down
Perron has been a surefire bet to score at a 25-goal 60-point pace since the 2018-19 season, and that was the year after he scored his career-high of 66 points.
At 35 years old, the winger has begun his decline at the worst possible time for the Red Wings as they look to finally make a push to enter the postseason for the first time since 2016.
He has played 27 games, registering 7 goals and 13 points over that time to go along with the worst advanced metrics he has had in years.
Perron is currently on Detroit’s third line and is set to return tonight from a six-game suspension.
If he could begin to pick up his game, Detroit would have a much better chance of reentering the playoff picture by season’s end.
Buffalo Sabres
Biggest Surprise: Zach Benson’s immediate impact
When was the last time we saw an 18-year-old 13th overall pick enter the league and be this good?
Cole Sillinger (12th, 2021) is a close example, but he has yet to reach the success of his 16-goal 31-point rookie season. David Pastrnak (25th, 2014) is another comparison with 10 goals and 27 points in just 46 games in his rookie year.
Benson has scored 4 goals and 13 points in just 24 games thus far and has some solid advanced metrics to support it.
Just by watching the kid, his hands are already well beyond an average level level and he has displayed some raw talent that has a lot of future potential.
His slipping to 13th on draft night was immediately shocking and Benson is already proving plenty of teams wrong already.
Biggest Disappointment: Dylan Cozens slip in production
Cozens had a breakout 2022-23 season, scoring 31 goals, which was 18 more than his past career-high, and 68 points.
The 22-year-old center was bound to continue this upward trajectory as the Sabres had hoped to have built a roster that could make a push for the playoffs this season.
Instead, Buffalo is one of three teams that have separated themselves into the bottom of the Eastern Conference and look bound to miss the postseason for a league-leading 13 straight seasons.
Cozen’s decline in production is a major reason why they’re struggling, as he just has 6 goals and 18 points in 32 games. That’s just a 46-point pace.
Hopefully, the return of Jack Quinn can aid in improving his production, but Cozens’ declined advanced metrics don’t show as much promise as you’d want.
As with most of the players I have discussed, I don’t see this becoming the new normal for Cozens, but considering the long dry spell of April-June hockey for the club, it can’t feel great to see one of your promising young players struggling.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Biggest Surprise: Joseph Woll taking the starter role
After a successful year last season, Ilya Samsonov has struggled mightily in the 14 games he has appeared in. He has a 0.871% save percentage and is 58th of 59 netminders who have appeared in at least 10 games this season in GSAx (-9.4) according to MoneyPuck.
This has led to Joseph Woll, the rookie goaltender who was expected to be backing up Samsonov already appearing in 15 games.
He has been incredible for the Leafs so far with a 0.916% save percentage and has saved 7.4 more goals than expected, which is good for 12th in the league.
The 25-year-old netminder is now clearly the future between the pipes for this Leafs team that hopes to push for a Stanley Cup in the coming years.
Biggest Disappointment: Tyler Bertuzzi not fitting in
Bertuzzi was on my radar heading into the season, as the high likelihood of him appearing on a line with Auston Matthews and one of Mitch Marner or William Nylander to begin the year was extremely high.
The 28-year-old winger had 30 points in 51 games last year, most importantly he had 16 points in 21 games with the Bruins after being acquired at the trade deadline.
That along with 10 points in 7 games in his first playoff appearance led to a lot of hype around Bertuzzi this season. So far he only had 13 points in 30 games in a Leafs sweater.
Bertuzzi has spent the majority of his time on John Tavares’ wing with one of Nylander or Marner on the other side.
All three of those players have been fantastic production-wise this year, which only further causes concern for Bertuzzi’s play.
His advanced metrics are looking to stay at a high level, so expect him to have an offensive explosion by the end of this year.
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